2017年(nian)(nian)春季(ji)種(zhong)(zhong)子市(shi)(shi)場(chang)在糧價低迷和農(nong)戶對種(zhong)(zhong)植結構調整思量中(zhong)(zhong)徐緩開(kai)啟。截至(zhi)2月(yue)24日全國種(zhong)(zhong)子鋪貨和市(shi)(shi)場(chang)零售終端信息(xi)觀察(cha)點(dian)顯示，種(zhong)(zhong)子供應(ying)充足，銷售品種(zhong)(zhong)多(duo)，作物分(fen)化明顯，價格漲跌不一。預計在農(nong)產品價格形成機制市(shi)(shi)場(chang)化和種(zhong)(zhong)子總(zong)體供大(da)于(yu)求(qiu)的背景(jing)下，種(zhong)(zhong)子市(shi)(shi)場(chang)競爭將比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)更加(jia)激烈(lie)，中(zhong)(zhong)后期價格可能(neng)出現一定(ding)波(bo)動。

一、玉米

非(fei)優勢區面積調減趨勢明顯，優勢區觀望氣氛濃(nong)厚，市場低(di)迷，價格總體走低(di)，種子供過于求。

市(shi)場啟動晚、銷售進度慢。東(dong)華北和(he)黃(huang)淮海區，農民對調整(zheng)種植(zhi)作物(wu)猶豫觀(guan)望，購種時期推遲，盡管(guan)種子(zi)企業、經(jing)銷商和(he)零售商推銷力度大(da)于往(wang)年(nian)，種子(zi)銷售終端市(shi)場依然冷清，目前種子(zi)入戶率不足(zu)30%，明顯滯后(hou)往(wang)年(nian)。

供(gong)遠大于求、品種(zhong)數量(liang)(liang)多(duo)。種(zhong)子(zi)有效(xiao)供(gong)給總量(liang)(liang)在20億(yi)公(gong)斤以(yi)上(shang)，遠遠超(chao)過11億(yi)公(gong)斤的用(yong)種(zhong)需求。市場(chang)(chang)上(shang)新(xin)審(shen)定(ding)和同一生(sheng)態(tai)區引(yin)種(zhong)的品種(zhong)數量(liang)(liang)猛增，銷售品種(zhong)總數高達1500多(duo)個，農民選(xuan)種(zhong)難度加(jia)大，市場(chang)(chang)競爭(zheng)激烈。

品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)差異(yi)大、區(qu)(qu)域分化(hua)明顯(xian)。品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)間價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)分化(hua)較大，以公斤(jin)(jin)計量的(de)(de)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)15-70元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公斤(jin)(jin)、以袋計量畝(mu)用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)30-80元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/袋。東(dong)華北春玉米(mi)區(qu)(qu)，受玉米(mi)低價(jia)(jia)收購(gou)影(ying)響，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)下滑趨勢明顯(xian)。在剛(gang)啟動的(de)(de)吉林種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市(shi)場上，一些經銷(xiao)(xiao)商為降低庫存、盤(pan)活資金進行甩貨(huo)(huo)，對一些品牌品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)銷(xiao)(xiao)售價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)形成壓制。還(huan)處在種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)鋪(pu)貨(huo)(huo)階段的(de)(de)黑龍江(jiang)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)有(you)20%-30%的(de)(de)下滑幅(fu)度。遼寧早熟區(qu)(qu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)為30.34元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公斤(jin)(jin)，同(tong)比(bi)下降6.90%。市(shi)場主導品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)先玉335、京(jing)科968、鄭單958，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)分別為57元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/袋·畝(mu)、40元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/袋·畝(mu)、35元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/袋·畝(mu)，均出現5%-10%的(de)(de)下滑幅(fu)度。西(xi)南(nan)春玉米(mi)區(qu)(qu)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)銷(xiao)(xiao)售相對活躍。四川、重(zhong)慶、云南(nan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)分別為31.13元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公斤(jin)(jin)、35.82元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公斤(jin)(jin)、29.94元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公斤(jin)(jin)，同(tong)比(bi)基本持(chi)平。

二、水稻

種子市(shi)場啟動正常、運行平穩，但(dan)雜交稻種子中后期可能出現價格下滑(hua)波(bo)動。

常規(gui)稻(dao)。北方稻(dao)區(qu)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)零售(shou)終端市場種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)供應(ying)充足，企業鋪貨基(ji)本(ben)穩定(ding)，鋪貨進(jin)度(du)與(yu)去年同期基(ji)本(ben)一致，預(yu)計有(you)水(shui)(shui)源等條件的(de)玉米(mi)主產區(qu)，農民將(jiang)設法改種(zhong)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)，因此水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)面積將(jiang)有(you)所擴大，種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市場價(jia)格將(jiang)穩中(zhong)有(you)升。南方稻(dao)區(qu)，對早熟、直播及優質種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)特別是糯質品(pin)種(zhong)的(de)購買需求(qiu)旺盛，品(pin)質優良的(de)品(pin)種(zhong)批發價(jia)格有(you)所上升，普通品(pin)種(zhong)略有(you)降價(jia)。在零售(shou)市場活躍的(de)廣西(xi)，優質常規(gui)稻(dao)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)格28.41元/公斤，同比增(zeng)長(chang)11.35%

雜交(jiao)稻(dao)。零售(shou)(shou)終端市場(chang)如期開(kai)始啟動。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子供(gong)應充足，可供(gong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子總量(liang)3.6億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)，超過2.4～2.5億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)的需求量(liang)。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)格基本穩(wen)定，平(ping)均售(shou)(shou)價(jia)63.84元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)。華(hua)南(nan)早(zao)稻(dao)區(qu)，由于去年(nian)大田種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植受災補種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，企業庫存(cun)壓(ya)力(li)明(ming)顯(xian)減少，加之(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子生產成本持續上(shang)漲(zhang)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子平(ping)均售(shou)(shou)價(jia)68.52元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)，穩(wen)中略增(zeng)1.04%。中稻(dao)區(qu)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子平(ping)均售(shou)(shou)價(jia)90.89元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)，同(tong)比基本持平(ping)。其中，福建97.70元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)，同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)2.56%;廣西84.5元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)、湖南(nan)81.69元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)、四川91.77元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)、云南(nan)71.91元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)、重(zhong)慶92.97元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)，同(tong)比持平(ping);安徽95.82元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)，同(tong)比下降2.37%。預計隨著中晚稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子市場(chang)的活躍，雜交(jiao)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子將有(you)小幅波動，主(zhu)要原因(yin)是中晚稻(dao)雜交(jiao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子2.8億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)的供(gong)應量(liang)遠(yuan)大于需求量(liang)及優質(zhi)常規(gui)稻(dao)替代雜交(jiao)稻(dao)增(zeng)加趨勢將壓(ya)減雜交(jiao)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子銷售(shou)(shou)。

三、棉花

長江和黃河流域棉(mian)(mian)區(qu)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)終端銷(xiao)售市場零星啟動(dong)(dong)，在2016年(nian)棉(mian)(mian)花收購價(jia)格上調和棉(mian)(mian)地(di)種(zhong)(zhong)植補貼帶(dai)動(dong)(dong)下，農戶(hu)繼續減種(zhong)(zhong)棉(mian)(mian)花勢頭得到遏(e)制，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場呈現好(hao)轉跡象，將有力緩解嚴重(zhong)的(de)(de)庫存壓力。當(dang)前(qian)安徽雜交棉(mian)(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)平均(jun)售價(jia)240.89元(yuan)/公斤，同(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)3.32%。湖南(nan)雜交棉(mian)(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)161.29元(yuan)/公斤，同(tong)比(bi)持平。山東常規棉(mian)(mian)20元(yuan)/公斤，主要銷(xiao)售品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)是(shi)中(zhong)早熟、抗(kang)病、抗(kang)蟲、高產易(yi)摘(zhai)的(de)(de)農興系列、魯(lu)棉(mian)(mian)研(yan)系列及河北冀棉(mian)(mian)等系列。新疆(jiang)棉(mian)(mian)區(qu)市場目前(qian)尚未啟動(dong)(dong)。

四、大豆

受結(jie)構調整政策、大(da)(da)(da)(da)豆玉(yu)米比價(jia)提高后玉(yu)米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植效益(yi)優勢(shi)趨弱等因素(su)影響，農民種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植大(da)(da)(da)(da)豆積極(ji)性明(ming)顯提高。東(dong)北大(da)(da)(da)(da)豆區(qu)，市(shi)場種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)充足，銷售形勢(shi)較(jiao)(jiao)好，銷售進(jin)度明(ming)顯快于往年，價(jia)格上漲明(ming)顯，大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)分種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)生產(chan)商手里已(yi)無存貨。鐮刀(dao)彎地區(qu)四五積溫帶市(shi)場已(yi)經明(ming)朗，小規模種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植農戶(hu)開始改種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)(da)豆，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)銷售市(shi)場形成玉(yu)米冷(leng)清、大(da)(da)(da)(da)豆較(jiao)(jiao)旺(wang)的冰火兩重天景(jing)象。黃(huang)淮海夏大(da)(da)(da)(da)豆區(qu)，由(you)于新(xin)《種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)法(fa)》對種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)銷售“一袋一碼”要求(qiu)、企業需要重新(xin)設計包裝，大(da)(da)(da)(da)豆種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市(shi)場鋪(pu)貨緩慢，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)批發價(jia)格高于往年，農戶(hu)購種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)積極(ji)性增(zeng)高，中熟、高產(chan)、抗(kang)倒伏、落黃(huang)性好、成熟不(bu)裂莢、適合(he)機械化的品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)受到市(shi)場青睞。

五、花生與雜糧雜豆

黃淮(huai)海區(qu)在花(hua)生(sheng)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植效益(yi)相對較高、部分玉(yu)米改種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)花(hua)生(sheng)的帶動下，花(hua)生(sheng)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市場活躍，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)需(xu)求量隨(sui)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)積(ji)擴大而增(zeng)加，春播(bo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)零售(shou)價格同比(bi)去(qu)年小幅(fu)上(shang)升，夏播(bo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)企業正在積(ji)極(ji)鋪貨，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)供應(ying)充足，預計零售(shou)價格穩中(zhong)有增(zeng)。山西、陜西、內蒙、寧夏等區(qu)域(yu)，優質雜糧雜豆(dou)面(mian)積(ji)有明(ming)顯上(shang)升的勢頭，其種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市場比(bi)較活躍。  

良種還需良法，同樣優良的種子，不同的人種植有不同結果，說明種子是前提，技術是關鍵。為此，本公司組織技術人員編寫了一本通俗易懂的栽培技術要點，希望對引種者有一定的實際幫助。
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